Kang Hong Pharmaceutical (002773): Expansion of indications for Compaq Medical Insurance in 2020 is imminent
Kanghong Pharmaceutical announced the 2019 performance forecast on January 14th: Realizing net profit attributable to mothers6.
9.5 billion to 7.
640,000 yuan, an increase of 0-10% in ten years.
Deduct non-attributed net profit 6.
3 billion to 6.
890,000 yuan, an increase of 0-10% in ten years.
In the fourth quarter, the company achieved net profit attributable to its mother.
43 ppm to 2.
USD 1.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of -24% to 13%, net of non-attributed net profit1.
26 ppm to 1.
86 ppm, a ten-year increase of -29% to 5%.
The company’s performance growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 has improved, slightly exceeding expectations.
Compaq’s price has been renewed by 25%. It has renewed its medical insurance negotiating catalog and increased its 杭州桑拿网 indications. The increase in the distribution of potential disease groups covered by medical insurance will promote the growth of Compaq’s sales. The growth of its performance will accelerate and accelerate in 2020, maintaining the company’s “highly recommended” level.
The performance growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 has improved, and the company’s expense ratio may increase.
Compaq’s core product is expected to achieve 30% revenue growth in 2019, and Chinese medicine and chemical medicine revenue will grow steadily.
The improvement in the fourth quarter results may be due to higher expense ratios.
We believe that the company’s Chinese medicine and chemical medicine business is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2020.
Compaq’s market space is large, and its products have reached the world’s advanced level. 天津夜网 The penetration rate is currently not more than 2%. It is expected to achieve sustained and rapid growth, and the expense rate is expected to shift to the scale effect of the sales volume of Compaq’s.
Compaq has reduced the price by 25% and renewed the medical insurance negotiation catalogue, and gradually realized “price for quantity” through new indications.
Compaq Renewal renews the medical insurance negotiation catalogue with a price reduction of 4,160 yuan / branch, which is 25% lower than the earlier price of 5,550 yuan / branch. The scope of medical insurance coverage has increased “visual impairment caused by diabetic macular edema (DME)” and “choroidal neoplasia”The visual indication of blood vessel (CNV) -induced damage is two indications. The potential patient population covered by medical insurance has grown, and it is expected to achieve a “price-for-amount exchange” and a rapid increase in penetration.
Compaq’s annual drug use is numerous, and charity assistance projects have further strengthened product market competition. It is expected that next year’s revenue will increase by 30%.
The ratio of the number of branches of Compaq’s medications is similar to that of similar products ranibizumab and aflibercept. Under the condition that the medical insurance limits the total reimbursement to no more than 9 and no more than 5 in the first year, patients can be more fullyTreatment.
Compaq Ship has implemented the new medical insurance reimbursement policy in January this year. At the same time, it announced that it has also launched a charitable assistance program. For eligible medical insurance patients, buy three needles and one needle for each eye, and buy two needles for on-demand assistance (Within one year), for non-medical patients, buy three needles of on-demand assistance per eye (within one year).
If patients benefit from AIDS assistance, Compaq’s intervention has the lowest price among similar products, and it has also become the only product that can not exceed the 9 branches of Medicare reimbursement under sufficient treatment, which strengthens CompaqXipu’s market competitiveness.
We expect that the number of Compaq drugs used is expected to increase by about 70%, thereby achieving a 30% increase in price reduction and maintaining a rapid growth trend.
Compaq Overseas Phase III trials are progressing steadily, which is expected to open up the overseas tens of billions of dollars market and achieve long-term sustainable growth.
The company’s overseas clinical phase III trial of wet age-related macular degeneration is progressing smoothly, and 1,140 patients have been enrolled. Phase III clinical trials of other indications are in progress at the same time, and it will open a US $ 10 billion market after overseas listing.
Compaq’s domestic market promotion and overseas market expansion are expected to achieve long-term sustained growth.
Earnings forecast: We expect the company to achieve revenues of 32 in 2019-2021.
46 billion, 36.
9.4 billion, 42.
7.6 billion, an increase of 11%, 14%, 16% each year, and net profit attributable to mothers is 7.
3.8 billion, 9.
50 billion, 11.
6.5 billion, an increase of 6%, 29%, 23% each year, and the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
85 yuan, 1.
09 yuan, 1.
33 yuan.The company currently expects a corresponding 20-year PE valuation of 35 times and maintains the company’s “strongly recommended” investment rating.
Risk reminder: the intensity of medical insurance control costs exceeds expectations; the scale of competition continues to exceed expectations; product development progress is less than expected